Black Swan Impact Newsletter Survey Analysis And Avian Influenza Article
Topic # 82
The survey results for all eight questions regarding the posts that I have sent to you since September 2022, may be found below. Your feedback allowed me to understand what topics have resonated with you. The overall takeaway is that you enjoy weekly articles or essays related to my sci-fi political thriller and biohazards. Therefore, you will find a short post related to avian influenza below the stats and more posts related to Black Swan Impact and current and historical biothreats going forward.
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SURVEY RESULTS
1. I became a Black Swan Impact Newsletter subscriber in ____ .
100 % 2022
0 % 2023
0 % 2024
2. I prefer Black Swan Impact Newsletter topics related to _____ .
33 % the novel Black Swan Impact
33 % current and historical biothreats
17 % any black swan threats
0 % trivia
17% guest interviews
3. The weekly posts piqued my interest in the sci-fi political thriller Black Swan Impact.
100 % Yes
0 % No
0 % Undecided
4. The weekly posts related to biothreats piqued my interest in the subject, and I would like to see more of them in the future.
83 % Yes
0 % No
17 % Undecided
5. The weekly posts related to any black swan event piqued my interest in that subject, and I would like to see more of them in the future.
67 % Yes
0 % No
17 % Undecided
6. I will continue to read topics written by Helen Hynson Vettori.
100 % Yes
0 % No
0 % Undecided
7. I would prefer to receive a topic written by Helen Hynson Vettori in _____ intervals.
50 % weekly
17 % monthly
17 % quarterly
17 % irregular
8. I ______ recommend(ed) this publication to others.
100 % have
0 % will
0 % may
0 % will not
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Earlier this month you may have seen news reports like this one: CDC issues bird flu health alert to clinicians, state health departments, public after Texas farmer infected1. A few days ago, Megan Molteni reported, Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest U.S. bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread2. Additionally, you may remember my February 19, 2024, post (Topic # 71) Suffering Animals, But Not Why You Think. I presented the topic then and again now because avian influenza has been circulating in many countries and concerning infectious disease experts since 1997. I do not intend to set off alarm bells, merely suggest that we keep abreast of this virus in responsible ways. That being the case, here are some facts concerning this potential biothreat to humans and my thoughts.
Avian influenza, or H5N1, is a bird disease and does not infect humans easily. Should we consider it as a potential threat nonetheless - not in a frantic way but with adequate thought and measure?
Since 1997, there have been about 900 sporadic human cases reported in 23 countries. Rounding up equates to an average of 34 human infections per year. To put that in perspective, the World Health Organization documents 1,000 – 2,000 cases of human plague cases annually, seven of which on average occur in the USA3. These statistics may cause us to dismiss this potential threat, but should they?
Of the 900 human H5N1 cases, about half of them died, making it a very virulent disease. However, recent farmers who have contracted it have experienced mild symptoms. It is unknown if this is an ongoing trend or an anomaly and, therefore, should be studied. If the trend becomes the norm, then could reduce our concern or maintain surveillance?
When a virus jumps from one species to another, it can mutate to become highly infectious and potentially extremely deadly to humans. However, cows are not good viral mixing vessels for viruses to achieve adequate human exploitation mutations4. Pigs are ideal mixing vessels for viruses to be able to mutate into one that can threaten humans. With this current outbreak in cattle, should farmers keep pigs and cows apart and how far apart is adequate?
Although avian flu traces have been found in milk, the FDA states that “that H5N1, which is heat-sensitive, is very likely killed through the process of pasteurization.5” Should we, as consumers, challenge that statement? Pasteurization has been a successful safeguard for a long time, but should we accept the phrase “very likely killed”?
Currently, antivirals like oseltamivir remain effective human treatment for H5N16. However, wouldn’t it be naive to believe they won’t become less efficacious with future avian flu mutations?
The bottom line is scientists and infectious disease experts should continue to monitor avian influenza just as they have done over the past 27 years. That is the reason the CDC called for physicians to watch for and report cases of the disease. It is also why scientists are testing milk supplies in wider areas. However, those actions alone should not encourage us to be complacent or unimaginative. Perhaps H5N1 will never become a human pandemic, but I urge that we challenge elected officials, government entities, and even private sector executives to lean forward by planning and preparing for a widespread H5N1 outbreak. As Benjamin Franklin said, “By failing to prepare, you're preparing to fail.”
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On April 6th, I will reprint a Loudoun Now article written about me and Black Swan Impact and provide a link to an NBC4 interview.
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https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/25/h5n1-bird-flu-cows-outbreak-likely-widespread/
https://www.statnews.com/2024/04/25/h5n1-bird-flu-cows-outbreak-likely-widespread/
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/novel-av-treatment-guidance.htm